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The direst potential impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by scientists, encompassing a blistering 4C increase in temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in ocean levels. An alternative projection envisions a drop of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and power requirements.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These effects, a number of which are connected to climate tipping points, are viewed as unlikely but credible. The team said that these scenarios plugged a hole in planning that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are possible," stated the lead researcher who directed the analysis. "The nation has been planning lacking the frameworks to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to prepare for environmental results they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Extreme Weather Possibilities

A further series of worst-case scenarios details the potential extent of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These show that temperatures could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be triple typical amounts.

The chance of the catastrophic events happening cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainty about what action will be enacted to tackle global warming and how the planet's climate will respond. This research was described as similar to security threat evaluations or scenario planning for economic stability.

Key Outcome Details

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action breaks down or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon rainforest dying unleash its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to severe and lengthy heatwaves and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and losing stability due to ocean warming. A complete failure beginning in 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and water resources would be completely altered," noted the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, inundating seaside communities. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is sharply cut. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

The severe models could be used to inform the construction of major projects, such as new towns, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Understanding these environmental threats could also speed the drive to cut fossil fuel emissions.

The study developed the severe projections using a mix of observed and historical experience, digital projections and climate physics. The scenarios omit international cascading effects including the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The research was requested as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have warned that not enough attention was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and examine the dangers for 4C. Past policy documents have been described as being "insufficient" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson noted: "Climate change is at the center of our national priorities, both building resilience and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is ready for the impacts."